Moneyworld

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Are The Refiners Under Accumulation?

Commentary: Accumulation and distribution are often hard to discern on a chart. It typically takes institutions several days or weeks to unwind or accumulate positions due to the sheer numbers involved. As such, it is always in the institutions' best interests to hide their intentions and actions to prevent other market participants from taking advantage of the situation. However, institutions can't truly hide their intentions as price charts record the culmination of every buy and sell transaction.

The easiest way to spot this is to just watch for lateral consolidations with a large increase in volume. There are indicators that can be plotted on a chart to simplify spotting this behavior, such as volume weighted average price (VWAP) and volume by price. Volume by price plots volume on the left side of the chart based on the price where shares traded instead of the date.

You can see what the volume by price indicator looks like in the chart of Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO) below. Notice the huge increase in volume in the $17.50-$20 area. The price dipped below this area a few times but quickly reversed. Notice how price moved sideways throughout this period of high volume without advancing or declining. Instead, VLO built a base, which it recently broke out from. Once it was able to move above the large volume area, it began trending versus churning.

Holly Corp (NYSE:HOC) is another refiner that has had a huge increase in volume as price moved laterally. It has been building a reverse head and shoulder base for the better part of three months and is just starting to emerge above the price-by-volume bars and the neckline of the pattern. If it can follow through above the recent high, it could ignite a sharp rally higher.

Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) looks much like VLO, with prices starting to set higher pivot highs after clearing the large price-by-volume bar. Due to the large number of shares traded in this area, many sellers now find themselves regretting their decision, and could be waiting for any dip into this area to buy back. This is how bottoms are formed, as traders who missed the move begin supporting the stock at prior prices.

It's amazing how eerily similar many charts look in the same sector. Petro Canada (NYSE:PCZ) is trading in the same fashion as the other refiners, with price clearing the first level of resistance and above the largest of the price-by-volume bars. Buyers appear to be returning on the test of support, and PCZ could be ready to challenge for a breakout.

It seems counter-intuitive that oil refiners would be under accumulation while oil has been under constant pressure. It could be that crack spreads are improving, or that the smart money foresees an improvement in the refiners' margins. However, the reason is not as important as the simple fact that someone is buying here. Technical analysis attempts to remove the guesswork from why participants are acting in a certain manner by objectively showing the price action. The charts are suggesting accumulation by someone, and it really shouldn't matter why?

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Deccan Gold Mines Ltd.--512068 DECNGOLD Group (B)

Report card
PE ratio -289.01 30/12/08
EPS (Rs) -0.06 Mar, 08
Face Value (Rs) 1
Net profit margin (%) 50.81 Mar, 99
Return on average equity 4.22 Mar, 99

Fundamental Research
Results:

Quarterly results in brief (Rs crore)
Sep ' 08 Jun ' 08 Mar ' 08 Dec ' 07 Jun ' 07
Sales - - - - -
Operating profit - - - - -
Interest - - - - -
Gross profit 0.06 -0.10 0.01 -0.06 -0.16
EPS (Rs) 0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04

Quarterly results in details
Sep ' 08 Jun ' 08 Mar ' 08 Dec ' 07 Jun ' 07
Other income 0.26 0.43 0.16 0.16 0.02
Employee expenses 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06
Admin and selling expenses - 0.07 0.22 0.12 -
Other expenses 0.13 0.39 -0.14 0.03 0.12
Depreciation 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.06
Net profit / loss 0.04 -0.12 -0.03 -0.11 -0.21
Equity capital 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85
Agg.of non-prom. shares (Lacs) 283.51 281.70 281.52 277.82 234.22
Agg.of non promotoholding (%) 48.50 48.20 48.16 47.53 40.07

Half yearly results in brief (Rs crore)
Sep ' 08 Mar ' 08 Sep ' 07 Mar ' 07 Sep ' 06
Sales - - - - -
Operating profit - - - - -
Interest - - - - -
Gross profit -0.04 -0.05 -0.12 -0.27 -0.15
EPS (Rs) -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.04

Half yearly results in details
Sep ' 08 Mar ' 08 Sep ' 07 Mar ' 07 Sep ' 06
Other income 0.69 0.33 0.18 0.25 0.20
Stock adjustment - - - - -
Raw material - - - - -
Power and fuel - - - - -
Employee expenses 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.06
Excise - - - - -
Admin and selling expenses 0.07 0.35 - - -
Research and development expenses - - - - -
Expenses capitalised - - - - -
Other expenses 0.52 -0.11 0.19 0.41 0.29
Provisions made - - - - -
Depreciation 0.04 0.09 0.10 0.07 0.07
Taxation - - 0.01 0.01 -
Net profit / loss -0.08 -0.14 -0.22 -0.34 -0.22
Extra ordinary item - - - - -
Prior year adjustments - - - - -
Equity capital 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85
Equity dividend rate - - - - -
Agg.of non-prom. shares (Lacs) 283.51 281.52 243.09 234.22 232.30
Agg.of non promotoholding (%) 48.50 48.16 41.59 40.07 39.74

Annual results in brief (Rs crore)

Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07 Mar ' 06 Mar ' 05 Mar ' 04
Sales - - - - -
Operating profit - - -0.71 -0.59 -0.16
Interest - - - - -
Gross profit -0.17 -0.41 -0.30 -0.55 -0.16
EPS (Rs) -0.06 -0.10 -0.10 -0.13 -0.03

Annual results in details
Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07 Mar ' 06 Mar ' 05 Mar ' 04
Other income 0.51 0.45 0.41 0.04 -
Stock adjustment - - - - -
Raw material - - - - -
Power and fuel - - - - -
Employee expenses 0.25 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.03
Excise - - - - -
Admin and selling expenses 0.35 - - - -
Research and development expenses - - - - -
Expenses capitalised - - - - -
Other expenses 0.08 0.70 0.54 0.44 0.12
Provisions made - - - - -
Depreciation 0.18 0.14 0.20 0.13 -
Taxation 0.01 0.01 - - -
Net profit / loss -0.36 -0.56 -0.50 -0.68 -0.16
Extra ordinary item - - - - -
Prior year adjustments - - - - -
Equity capital 5.85 5.85 5.15 5.15 5.15
Equity dividend rate - - - - -
Agg.of non-prom. shares (Lacs) 281.52 234.22 158.42 148.00 75.14
Agg.of non promotoHolding (%) 48.16 40.07 30.79 28.77 14.60

Balance sheet (Rs crore)
Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07 Mar ' 06 Mar ' 05 Mar ' 04
Sources of funds
Owner's fund
Equity share capital 5.85 5.85 5.15 5.15 5.15
Share application money - 1.67 - - -
Preference share capital - - - - -
Reserves & surplus 9.10 7.79 -1.47 -0.97 -0.37
Loan funds
Secured loans - - - - -
Unsecured loans - - - - -
Total 14.95 15.31 3.67 4.18 4.77
Uses of funds
Fixed assets
Gross block 1.21 0.80 0.80 0.80 -
Less : revaluation reserve - - - - -
Less : accumulated depreciation 0.65 0.47 0.33 0.13 -
Net block 0.56 0.34 0.47 0.67 -
Capital work-in-progress - - 3.28 2.28 0.63
Investments 9.07 8.64 0.01 0.01 -
Net current assets
Current assets, loans & advances 1.41 2.78 0.22 1.27 4.65
Less : current liabilities & provisions 0.17 0.23 0.44 0.22 0.64
Total net current assets 1.24 2.55 -0.21 1.05 4.01
Miscellaneous expenses not written 4.07 3.79 0.12 0.16 0.14
Total 14.95 15.31 3.67 4.18 4.77
Notes:
Book value of unquoted investments 9.07 8.64 0.01 0.01 -
Market value of quoted investments - - - - -
Contingent liabilities - 0.07 - - -
Number of equity sharesoutstanding (Lacs) 584.50 584.50 514.50 514.50 514.50

Profit loss account (Rs crore)
Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07 Mar ' 06 Mar ' 05 Mar ' 04
Income:
Operating income - - 0.44 - -
Expenses
Material consumed - - - - -
Manufacturing expenses - - - - -
Personnel expenses 0.27 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.04
Selling expenses 0.01 - 0.05 0.01 0.01
Adminstrative expenses 0.40 0.52 0.50 0.37 0.24
Expenses capitalised - - - - -
Cost of sales 0.68 0.69 0.71 0.53 0.28
Operating profit - - -0.28 -0.53 -0.28
Other recurring income 0.51 0.45 0.02 0.08 -
Adjusted PBDIT -0.17 -0.24 -0.26 -0.45 -0.28
Financial expenses - - - - -
Depreciation 0.18 0.14 0.20 0.13 -
Other write offs - - 0.04 0.02 0.02
Adjusted PBT -0.35 -0.38 -0.50 -0.60 -0.29
Tax charges 0.01 0.01 - - -
Adjusted PAT -0.36 -0.39 -0.50 -0.60 -0.29
Non recurring items - - - - -
Other non cash adjustments - - - - -
Reported net profit -0.36 -0.39 -0.50 -0.60 -0.29
Earnigs before appropriation -2.22 -1.86 -1.47 -0.97 -0.37
Equity dividend - - - - -
Preference dividend - - - - -
Dividend tax - - - - -
Retained earnings -2.22 -1.86 -1.47 -0.97 -0.37

Cash flow (Rs crore)
Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07 Mar ' 06 Mar ' 05 Mar ' 04
Profit before tax -0.35 -0.38 -0.50 -0.60 -0.29
Net cashflow-operating activity -0.01 -1.01 0.95 -1.97 0.31
Net cash used in investing activity -1.13 -9.13 -1.00 -2.46 -0.63
Netcash used in fin. activity - 12.15 - -0.04 4.81
Net inc/dec in cash and equivlnt -1.14 2.01 -0.05 -4.47 4.50
Cash and equivalnt begin of year 2.08 0.08 0.13 4.60 0.10
Cash and equivalnt end of year 0.94 2.08 0.08 0.13 4.60

Share holding
Share holding pattern as on : 30/09/2008 30/06/2008 31/03/2008
Face value 1.00 1.00 1.00
No. Of Shares % Holding No. Of Shares % Holding No. Of Shares % Holding
Promoter's holding
Foreign Promoters 30098857 51.50 30279699 51.80 30297738 51.84
Sub total 30098857 51.50 30279699 51.80 30297738 51.84
Non promoter's holding
Institutional investors
Banks Fin. Inst. and Insurance 600 - 600 - 600 -
Sub total 600 - 600 - 2600 -
Other investors
Private Corporate Bodies 3515406 6.01 3695738 6.32 3874800 6.63
NRI's/OCB's/Foreign Others 7640731 13.07 7612850 13.02 7592541 12.99
Others 589922 1.01 457330 0.78 441013 0.75
Sub total 11746059 20.10 11756918 20.11 11899354 20.36
General public 16604484 28.41 16403783 28.06 16241308 27.79
Grand total 58450000 100.00 58441000 99.98 58441000 99.98

Capital structure (Rs crore)
From Year To Year Class Of Share Authorized Capital Issued Capital Paid Up Shares (Nos) Paid Up Face Value Paid Up Capital
2007 2008 Equity Share 10.00 5.85 58450000 1 5.85
2006 2007 Equity Share 10.00 5.85 58450000 1 5.85
2005 2006 Equity Share 6.00 5.15 51450000 1 5.15
2004 2005 Equity Share 6.00 5.15 51450000 1 5.15
2003 2004 Equity Share 6.00 5.15 51450000 1 5.15
2002 2003 Equity Share 60.00 2.45 2450000 10 2.45
2001 2002 Equity Share 0.25 0.25 245000 10 0.25
2000 2001 Equity Share 0.25 0.25 245000 10 0.25
1999 2000 Equity Share 0.25 0.25 245000 10 0.25
1998 1999 Equity Share 0.25 0.25 245000 10 0.25

Ratios (Rs crore)
Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07 Mar ' 06 Mar ' 05 Mar ' 04
Per share ratios
Adjusted EPS (Rs) -0.06 -0.06 -0.09 -0.11 -0.05
Adjusted cash EPS (Rs) -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.08 -0.05
Reported EPS (Rs) -0.06 -0.06 -0.09 -0.11 -0.05
Reported cash EPS (Rs) -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.08 -0.05
Dividend per share - - - - -
Operating profit per share (Rs) -0.11 -0.11 -0.05 -0.10 -0.05
Book value (excl rev res) per share (Rs) 1.86 1.68 0.69 0.77 0.90
Book value (incl rev res) per share (Rs.) 1.86 1.68 0.69 0.77 0.90
Net operating income per share (Rs) - - 0.08 - -
Free reserves per share (Rs) 0.57 0.68 -0.30 -0.22 -0.09
Profitability ratios
Operating margin (%) - -85.33 -63.27 - -
Gross profit margin (%) - -85.33 -108.72 - -
Net profit margin (%) -70.88 -86.85 -110.80 -760.94 -
Adjusted cash margin (%) -35.00 -55.90 -57.72 -577.12 -
Adjusted return on net worth (%) -3.31 -3.97 -14.12 -14.88 -6.35
Reported return on net worth (%) -3.31 -3.97 -14.12 -14.88 -6.35
Return on long term funds (%) -2.36 -2.81 -13.58 -14.29 -6.16
Leverage ratios
Long term debt / Equity - - - - -
Total debt/equity - - - - -
Owners fund as % of total source 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Fixed assets turnover ratio - - 0.54 - -
Liquidity ratios
Current ratio 8.34 12.05 0.50 5.87 7.22
Current ratio (inc. st loans) 8.34 12.05 0.50 5.87 7.22
Quick ratio 8.34 12.05 0.50 5.87 7.22
Inventory turnover ratio - - - - -
Payout ratios
Dividend payout ratio (net profit) - - - - -
Dividend payout ratio (cash profit) - - - - -
Earning retention ratio - - - - -
Cash earnings retention ratio - - - - -
Coverage ratios
Adjusted cash flow time total debt - - - - -
Financial charges coverage ratio -822.60 -361.27 -401.26 -2,345.94 -799.95
Fin. charges cov.ratio (post tax) -855.77 -371.43 -404.21 -2,345.94 -799.95
Component ratios
Material cost component (% earnings) - - - - -
Selling cost Component - - 10.52 - -
Exports as percent of total sales - - - - -
Import comp. in raw mat. consumed - - - - -
Long term assets / total Assets 0.87 0.76 0.94 0.70 0.11
Bonus component in equity capital (%) - - - - -


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